Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis

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Forecasting Carbon Emission For Turkey: Time Series Analysis


Mehmet , Mercan


Within the context of sustainable development objectives, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that cause climate change was first discussed and officially negotiated at the 1992 Rio Conference, which particularly emphasised developed countries to take serious measures. Then, it was followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which specified national ghg emission reduction targets for developed countries. With Kyoto Protocol, it was decided for these countries to reduce global emissions by 5% below 1990 levels compared to 2008-2012 emission levels. Turkey became a party to the Kyoto Protocol in 2009, yet due to their special circumstances they did not take any emission reduction commitments.. Negotiations on Post-2012 emission reduction obligations are still in progress under the UNFCCC umbrella and it is expected to have emission reduction targets not only by developed countries but also by developing ones. In this regard, it is important for Turkey to estimate its future ghg emissions, if they have to take a Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) for their strategy. There are various ghg emission estimations for 2020 and the results indicate different emission levels.Objective of this study is to estimate ghg emission levels for Turkey for 2020 and afterwards by using time series and regression analysis. Then, appropriate policy implications are discussed with the result of these findings. Keywords : Carbon Emissions, Time Series Analysis, climate change policy,emission projections


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