Tourism demand, oil price fluctuation, exchange rate and economic growth: Evidence from ARDL model and Rolling window Granger causality for Tunisia
Abstract : The paper examines the relationship between tourism demand and its macroeconomic determinants (GDP, oil price, exchange rate) with an aim to test the dynamic interdependence between them in the case of Tunisia. Using yearly data from 1971 to 2014, the output of the ARDL model and the more recent Bootstrap rolling window Granger causality tests show important results with great economic implications for researchers, regulators, investors, … The results substantiate, especially, the following causal relationships, i.e. i) tourism-demand induces substantial increase in both economic growth and oil price, ii) economic growth led tourism demand, iii) increase in oil price affects negatively the tourism demand, iv) tourism demand and exchange rate are not significantly associated. Keywords: Tourism demand, GDP, Oil price, ARDL, Bootstrap Rolling window. JEL classification: O40, L83, P1.
International Burch University