Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis

M. Metin Dam, Metin Dam (2012) Determinants Of Turkey Current Account Deficit: An Econometric Analysis. In: 3rd International Symposium on Sustainable Development, May 31 - June 01 2012, Sarajevo.

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Abstract

The main causes of the current account deficit in Turkey; the foreign trade deficit, the high ratio of intermediate goods imports, high oil prices and Turkey's energy import dependence, lack of domestic savings, foreign direct investment and low tourism revenues. In this study, the causes of the current account deficit and current account deficit financing structure were examined. In addition, the determinanats of Turkey current account deficit wereanalyzed via VAR methods using the data of 2002-2011 monthly current account deficit, net export, interest on external debt, transfer payments and costs of tourism. As a result of the study, According to variance discrimination results obtained from VAR model composed under this roof, current account deficit is determined by its own shocks in the short term. In addition, current account deficit prediction error variance is determined by tourism expenditures and foreign debt interest rate as well as its own variables. Current account deficit is affected by export, foreign debt interest rate, transfer payments and shock given to tourism expenditures. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Determinants, VAR, Turkey

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
Divisions: Faculty of Economics > Management Department
Depositing User: Users 173 not found.
Date Deposited: 01 Nov 2012 14:16
Last Modified: 01 Nov 2012 14:16
URI: http://eprints.ibu.edu.ba/id/eprint/1318

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